TorCAST TPI delivers the operational ceiling: the highest credible threat any storm in this environment could realistically produce. Not a probability of occurrence — a calibrated assessment of how bad it could get.
50.9% Hit Rate · 11.8% Bust Rate · 984 Events Scored
Most tools ask: "Will severe weather occur?" TorCAST asks a harder, more useful question: "What is the maximum plausible severe outcome this environment and storm could support?" By blending specialized hazard intelligence with real-time environmental diagnostics and regional calibration, TorCAST surfaces latent danger and environmental explosiveness — especially in QLCS, tropical, overnight, or messy warm-sector setups where traditional guidance can underplay the ceiling.
Maximum plausible threat zones (tornado / wind / hail) scored continuously across the CONUS. Click any point for a full location analysis.
Access the full TorCAST grid, forecast layers, and point-level analysis.
Ranked by TorCAST TPI
TorCAST is a Maximum Potential Engine. It doesn’t ask "will severe weather occur?" — it answers the harder, more operationally useful question: "What is the maximum plausible severe outcome this environment and storm could support?"
TorCAST surfaces the atmospheric ceiling even when skies are still clear — blending CAPE, shear, CIN, forcing, and regional calibration into a single TPI score that tells you how bad it could realistically get. Especially powerful in QLCS, tropical, overnight, and warm-sector setups where traditional guidance underplays the ceiling.
Two distinct dimensions, never collapsed into one. The TPI shows the environmental ceiling. The confidence layer (High / Mixed / Low) shows storm likelihood — using CIN, forcing strength, moisture quality, and time-of-day heating. High potential with low confidence is still operationally critical information.
We visualize uncertainty rather than remove signal. A conditional, cap-present environment with TPI 8 is shown at TPI 8 — with a hatched confidence overlay to communicate conditionality. The true danger is never hidden by arbitrary suppression rules.
Near-miss events reflect cases where the environment supported significant severe weather even if the storm itself did not fully realize the potential — exactly what forecasters need to know.
TPI correctly identified the threat tier for 1-in-2 scored events — without a confirmatory radar signal.
Only 11.8% of high-TPI events failed to produce any reportable severe weather — an exceptionally low false-alarm rate for a maximum-potential model.
Environment was primed. Storms underperformed. These are not failures — they are operationally valuable signals that the atmosphere was loaded and dangerous.
984 events scored across the latest validation window — spanning supercell, QLCS, tropical, and overnight convective setups. Data sources: HRRR, GFS, real-time surface and upper-air diagnostics.
Whether you're tracking storms for yourself or an entire enterprise, TorCAST has you covered. All plans include 100% unrestricted access to our live severity engine.
Built for broadcasters, emergency managers, commercial operators, and large-scale integrators who need TorCAST at production scale.
All plans include access to the TorCAST TPI grid. Requests counted against a 24-hour rolling window. Pricing subject to change. Enterprise quotes issued within 1 business day.